In about 3 days, the NE monsoon that is responsible for most of the TN rainfall might arrive but it could be weak.
Around 21st October, due to a low pressure area over the Arabian Sea and also due to another low pressure that might form over the Bay of Bengal, the NE monsoons might be weak this time atleast for the first week. This was mentioned by Mr. S. Balachandran, DDG (IMD) in Chennai. He added that after a week the intensification and path of the system would be responsible for the rain intensity.
It is a well known fact that the SW monsoons withdrew from India on 19th of October. The NE monsoon activity would begin in the next 3 days with the setting of NE and easterlies over Southern Peninsular India.
By means of NE monsoons, TN would get 447.4mm rains on an average that is 48%of TN annual rainfall. In Chennai alone, an average of 867.4 mm rains would be due to the NE monsoons. This is 63% of the annual rainfall in Chennai. Last year, the onset of the NE monsoon was delayed and it arrived on 29th October. There would be normal to above normal rains in this NE monsoons season in the state.
It is superb to note that the SW monsoon played a role in TN getting rains of 8% above the normal and Chennai receiving 779 mm rains that is 74% above normal. In the next 2 days Chennai city and its suburbs would get light rainfall in some places.
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