Very severe Cyclone Ockhi is moving in a north northwest direction since last 12 hours. At present, the system is 14.5 N and Longitude 16.5 E about 590 km NNW of Amini Divi, 690 km SSW of Mumbai and 870 km SSW of Surat.
The system will continue to move in NNW direction for another six to eight hours. Thereafter, the system is expected to recurve in a NNE direction towards Gujarat coast. As the cyclone will commence its journey into North Arabian Sea, it will encounter strong vertical wind sheer of 25 to 30 knots and sea surface temperatures will also be relatively cooler.
Dry winds from the west will also entrain the system. Due to these unfavourable conditions, we expect very severe cyclone Ockhi to start weakening rapidly. By the time it reaches Gujarat, it will not be able to maintain the cyclone status.
Thus, light rains will commence over North Konkan and Goa including Mumbai by tonight. By morning of December 5, many districts of Gujarat will also start receiving light rains with increased intensity gradually. Few moderate showers are expected. Sea conditions will become rough over North Maharashtra and Gujarat coast.
Wind speed may also increase and reach up to 30-40 kmph and gust up to 50 kmph. However, it will not be as devastating as it was in Kerala and Lakshadweep. People are advised not to venture out in the sea.
Courtesy: skymetweather.com