The state of Tamil Nadu received near normal rains during the Southwest Monsoon season. After receiving near normal rains during the Southwest Monsoon season, the state of Tamil Nadu geared up for exceptionally good rains during the first half of October. In fact, due to widespread rains, the rain surplus for Tamil Nadu in mid-October was almost 100%.
However, after that during the second half of October, rains reduced significantly over the entire state as Northeast Monsoon got delayed. Due to these reduced on and off rains, the state’s surplus got consumed completely and by end of the month, Tamil Nadu was 12% rain deficient.
Similarly, in the beginning of November also no good rains occurred over the state and as of November 15, the state’ s seasonal deficiency is about 29%, wherein till now 204 mm of rains against its normal of 285 mm have been recorded.
Now the first cyclone for Northeast Monsoon season, Gaja struck the Tamil Nadu Coast during the last 24 hours, giving widespread heavy to very heavy rains over the entire state especially the southern and central districts.
In fact, since morning Cuddalore has recorded 87 mm of rain, followed by Puducherry 65 mm, Nagapattinam 64 mm, Parangipettai 62 mm, Kodaikanal 61 mm, Karaikal 54 mm, Pamban 47 mm and Thondi 34 mm.
Further also, we expect these rains to continue over most parts of Tamil Nadu. However, due to this systems westwards movement and weakening, rains are expected to reduce over Tamil Nadu and shift towards the interior parts of Karnataka and Kerala. Thus, the state’s rain deficiency is also expected to reduce significantly.
Furthermore, between November 20 to 22, we expect another system to form in Bay of Bengal. This states that another rainy spell is expected for the state and this might give more rains over the northern parts as compared to the southern. In fact, Chennai may also receive good rains during that time. all these rains might bring down the state’s seasonal deficiency.
courtesy - skymetweather