Cyclone Vardah starts brewing near Andaman Sea
Posted on: 07/Dec/2016 10:01:30 AM
As expected the 2nd system of December has taken birth with IMD announcing the formation of Depression. It is expected to beome as Cyclonic Storm Vardah in a day or two as good conditions prevail in Bay of Bengal for intensification.
Where will it try to move ?
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The track it is differing a lot and the cyclone cant go to North Andhra pradesh or Odisha...Why would a Cyclone go there knowing that wind shear is too high and the waters are not so warm. It will be sucide to go there at this time of December....so what will it do ? it will try to come down in lattitude after initial north-north westward movement. Hence, i am confident inspite of the American models and the IMD models indicating a North AP/ South Odisha Landfall....well its not going to happen. I am expecting a change in them in a day or two and shift down the land fall location in lattitude.
So where will it try to go ? Well for that to know, we have to wait for a day or two. Some postive news are indicated by leading European model which is bringing it to South AP coast which means North Tamil Nadu will get rains. But lets not freeze this and assume its going to happen so early as our basin is full of surprises . Lets wait for 2-3 days before trying to put a track as divergence prevails on the path its going to take.
How strong the cyclone will get ?
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The conditions are so apt, we can expect Vardah to become a Severe Cyclone and i will not be surprised if it becomes even a Very Severe Cyclone in open seas. But as always as it nears the land it will weaken and will not make landfall in the same peak intensity.
Lets hope Vardah gives something to Tamil Nadu and anything from Vardah is a bonus to us. In Photos lots of satellite images of the Depression near Andaman sea which is going to become Vardah soon. And also a compiliation how much rainfall the weak Cyclone Nada gave to Chennai (not bad for a sheared system).
Courtesy : Tamilnadu weatherman
Where will it try to move ?
------------------------------
The track it is differing a lot and the cyclone cant go to North Andhra pradesh or Odisha...Why would a Cyclone go there knowing that wind shear is too high and the waters are not so warm. It will be sucide to go there at this time of December....so what will it do ? it will try to come down in lattitude after initial north-north westward movement. Hence, i am confident inspite of the American models and the IMD models indicating a North AP/ South Odisha Landfall....well its not going to happen. I am expecting a change in them in a day or two and shift down the land fall location in lattitude.
So where will it try to go ? Well for that to know, we have to wait for a day or two. Some postive news are indicated by leading European model which is bringing it to South AP coast which means North Tamil Nadu will get rains. But lets not freeze this and assume its going to happen so early as our basin is full of surprises . Lets wait for 2-3 days before trying to put a track as divergence prevails on the path its going to take.
How strong the cyclone will get ?
---------------------------------
The conditions are so apt, we can expect Vardah to become a Severe Cyclone and i will not be surprised if it becomes even a Very Severe Cyclone in open seas. But as always as it nears the land it will weaken and will not make landfall in the same peak intensity.
Lets hope Vardah gives something to Tamil Nadu and anything from Vardah is a bonus to us. In Photos lots of satellite images of the Depression near Andaman sea which is going to become Vardah soon. And also a compiliation how much rainfall the weak Cyclone Nada gave to Chennai (not bad for a sheared system).
Courtesy : Tamilnadu weatherman
