One more point to be noted in recent years, all cyclones have ended 20-30 km/hr on higher side than what was forecasted by models. Yesterday Gati cyclone in Arabian sea was not expected to become a Severe cyclone. In the end it went rapid intensification & gusts reached 200 km/hr
Cyclone Nivar which had simple steering has become little complex one. Heavy Rains are 100% confirmed for entire North TN but still that crossing point still remains a guess / probability.
Lets wait for some more time rather than being hasty.
Courtesy: Tamilnadu Weatherman