More than a million and half victims of Zika by end of first wave of the epidemic, says new study
Posted on: 29/Jul/2016 9:32:16 AM
A new study has warned that up to 1.65 million childbearing women in Central and South America could become infected by the Zika virus by the end of the first wave of the epidemic. The study was conducted by scientists at the University of Southampton and University of Oxford in the UK. The research was published in the journal Nature Microbiology.
The researchers has found that across Latin America and the Caribbean over 90 million infections could result from the initial stages of the spread of Zika, which has been linked to serious birth defects. The team`s projections also show that Brazil is expected to have the largest total number of infections, by more than three-fold, due to its size and suitability for transmission. The estimates reflect the sum of thousands of localised projections of how many people could become infected within every 5 x 5 km grid cell across Central and South America.
Speaking about this, one of the researchers said, The total figure of 1.65 million represents an upper limit estimate for the first wave of the epidemic. It is difficult to accurately predict how many child bearing women may be at risk from Zika because a large proportion of cases show no symptoms. This largely invalidates methods based on case data and presents a formidable challenge for scientists trying to understand the likely impact of the disease on populations.
An estimated 80 per cent of Zika infections do not show symptoms and of those which do, some may be due to other viruses. Inconsistent case reporting and variable access to health care for different populations are two main factors that make case based data unreliable.
The latest research has built a picture of the projected spread of the disease by examining its likely impact at very local levels - at a scale of five kilometres squared. The researchers have brought this local data together to model infection rates across the region.
